I haven't done a statistical breakdown in a while so I figured this rainbow would make for a strong entry. We're talking about Michael Jordan 1994-95 Collector's Choice #23. I've featured cards with MJ in a Sox jersey before and I guess you can say I'm a fan. It wasn't until only recently that I discovered that this was actually a basketball release. I always thought that this card came out of 1994 Collector's Choice baseball. Makes since if you look at it from a logical standpoint. MJ in a baseball uniform, must be from a baseball product. I suppose the contrary fact slipped right by me for all these years. That little anecdote partially influenced my decision to write about this particular release for today's entry. So let's get down to it, the statistical analysis for the base card and its paralleled silver and gold counterparts.
The Set and the Cost
According to secondary market values and current SRP's, a box of '94-'95 Collector's Choice basketball runs for around $15-20. For the sake of argument, let's just go with a solid number and call it $20. With 36 packs a box, each pack costs just over $0.50 ($0.56). Let's stick with $0.50 to keep the number's realistic. Who the heck is going to sell a pack for $0.56 anyways!?! That's just preposterous! So far, we have the following information: $20/box, 36 packs/box and $0.50/pack. This info is pretty darn important so be sure to take note.
Base: 1/box (on average). Possibly 2?
The '94-'95 Collector's Choice basketball set is made up of 420 cards. Each pack contains 12 cards. That means you have a 1/35 chance of pulling the base MJ card, that is of course assuming every pack contains different cards than the pack before (i.e., no doubles). Ha! Yea, right, like that'll ever happen with that many packs! Given the strong potential for doubles, let's assume a mean of 35 packs with a standard deviation of 5 (give or take). So that puts us at 40 packs if assuming the probability for pulling doubles. With a price point of $0.50/pack, it will cost $20 total to pull the base MJ, no biggie! So technically, the odds of pulling the base MJ are roughly one per box. This is great news for buyers with expectations!
Silver: 1:12 boxes
This card is somewhat more difficult to obtain. According to Beckett, the odds of pulling a Silver parallel are 1/pack. Fair enough. That means that, again, assuming no doubles, you'd have to buy 420 packs (11.6 box's) of this product just to pull the Silver Jordan. Cost? $210 worth of single packs or $240 worth of boxes! If you find it sold by itself, it can be had for around $5 on a routine basis... go figure!
Gold: 1:409 boxes
This is where things get strange and a little tricky. Beckett states that the odds of pulling a Gold parallel are 1/35 packs. No big deal, that's at least one a box, same as the base right! Wrong! This difference is that the base was one MJ/box, for this Gold parallel, it's 1/box but could be anyone. In order to be guarantee yourself a Gold MJ with an insertion rate of 1/35 packs, you would have to buy 408.3 boxes (remember, a box contains 36 packs). That's 14698.8 packs! Let's round that off to 14699 packs. In order to guarantee yourself a Gold MJ, you would have to open 14,699 packs of '94-'95 CC basketball! Cost? $7,349.50!!! That's only assuming you buy packs, not box's. This astronomical number equates to 408.3 box's which we'll round off to 409!!! Assuming a case contains 20 boxes, that means you have to bust 20.5 cases of this stuff to just find the Gold MJ! Tough is a very weak statement. A little food for thought the next time you put that in your sandwich and eat it.
The Gold MJ is surprisingly tough not only in packs but on the auction block and at shows as well. If you find one, be prepared to utilize your haggling skills as this card still demands attention, even this many years later. It's gonna cost you some bucks but don't say I didn't warn you!
Best of luck on your hunt
Question of the Day
For those of you working on completing a rainbow, tell us the player and the product.